Description: Development of a Prognostic Model That Predicts 3- and 5-Year Overall Survival in Multiple Myeloma Using the Connect® MM Patient Registry
Rafat Abonour, MD
Simon Cancer Center
Indiana University School of Medicine
Indianapolis, IN, USA
Introduction: Novel therapies have improved the median overall survival (OS) for newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM). In an unselected population of NDMM patients, the estimated rates of 5-year OS were 77%, 53%, and 19% for revised international staging system (R-ISS) Stage I, II, and III, respectively (Kastritis, 2017). However, the improvements have not been uniform, and prognosis varies considerably based on several baseline characteristics. Because of this clinical heterogeneity it is helpful to have a clear idea of risk factors involved in OS of patients with NDMM. Connect MM is the first and largest US-based, multicenter, prospective observational registry of patients with NDMM. Using data from the Connect MM registry, an unselected patient population reflective of the heterogeneity seen in routine clinical practice, we developed a prognostic tool to identify factors predictive of 3- and 5-year OS.
Conclusions: This is the first assessment of long-term survival using data from the Connect MM patient registry. Our study highlighted factors known to impact OS, including, mobility, del(17p) and ISS stage. We have developed a model that allows for robust prediction of long-term survival in patients with NDMM based on a variety of baseline characteristics. For clinicians, identifying patients with an increased likelihood of longer survival may be a useful tool to identify patient specific risk factors to better inform treatment decisions.
Authors: Howard R. Terebelo, DO, Rafat Abonour, MD, Cristina J. Gasparetto, MD, Kathleen Toomey, MD, Brian G. M. Durie, MD, James W. Hardin, PhD, Sundar Jagannath, MD, Lynne Wagner, PhD, Mohit Narang, MD, Shankar Srinivasan, PhD, Lihua Yue, PhD, Faiza Zafar, MPAS, Amani Kitali, MBA, MPH, Amit Agarwal, MD, PhD and Robert M Rifkin, MD